Elissa Slotkin’s Latest Chances of Beating Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate Race

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is leading former Rep. Mike Rogers by 6 points in Michigan, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by ActiVote between August 6 and September 5, shows that among 400 likely voters in the key battleground state, Slotkin is leading her opponent by 6.4 points in the race for a seat in the Senate, on 53.2 percent to his 46.8 percent.
Her lead is outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Slotkin and Rogers are battling it out for a seat in the Senate that became vacant when incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement after 23 years in the job, and with the Democrats’ current narrow majority in the Senate, the race could determine who controls the chamber from 2025.
Polls so far have given Slotkin a comfortable lead over Rogers, with a recent poll published on August 29 by the Glengariff Group putting her 9 points ahead of Rogers, on 44 percent to his 35 percent. Another recent poll from August conducted by TIPP Insights put Slotkin 12 points ahead of her opponent.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker puts Slotkin on average 4.8 points ahead of Rogers.
However, despite Slotkin’s lead, Rogers has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and the financial backing of national Republicans in the race, which could help his prospects in November. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated the contest for the seat a tossup.
“This race is going to go down to the wire,” former Michigan Republican Rep. Fred Upton told The Associated Press in August. “This is going to be two heavyweights, in a positive way. They really know the issues and will go toe to toe on them.” Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
The most recent ActiVote poll showed that Slotkin has a clear lead among urban voters, as well as younger voters and women—mirroring voting behavior among Democrats nationwide—while Rogers leads among suburban voters, older voters and men. But the poll also shows a somewhat uncommon pattern where Slotkin has a small lead among white voters as well as those with less education, while Rogers has a small lead with higher educated voters. However, the sample size is small, so it may not be representative.
The two candidates are tied among independents and rural voters.
Slotkin, who currently represents Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst and Department of Defense official, previously represented the state’s 8th District.
Rogers is a former FBI special agent and chair of the House Intelligence Committee.
Three debates between the two candidates were initially organized by the Michigan Debate Task Force, with the first scheduled for September 12, before absentee ballots are mailed out. However, Slotkin said she will not take part in any of the three debates, according to The Detroit News.
Instead, Slotkin has accepted invitations to participate in two televised debates, the first on October 9 and the second on October 14, the newspaper reported.
Her spokesperson, Austin Cook, told the publication the congresswoman is “fully keeping with precedent in past statewide races.”
“Rep. Slotkin is looking forward to being on the debate stage and giving voters a clear picture of both candidates and their very different visions for Michigan’s future,” Cook said in a statement.
Rogers told The Detroit News last month that he would take part in all three debates organized by the Michigan Debate Task Force. “We’ll do all three, absolutely,” he said. “We’ll hope to do more.” However, he has not confirmed that he will be taking part in the two televised October debates.
“Let me just say very clearly, I’m looking forward to debating Mr. Rogers in this race, holding him accountable, and I hope he’s going to meet me on the debate stage,” Slotkin said on the night she won her primary election.
Newsweek has contacted Rogers and Slotkin for comment.